Short but sweet.

Most of my reactions to the Josh Green piece for The Atlantic on the epic clusterfuck of the Clinton campaign are opinion and not analysis, so I'm posting them here rather than at FiveThirtyEight.

On Mark Penn (emphasis added):

In light of this history, he got off to an inauspicious start when Clinton entered the race in January 2007, by demanding the title "chief strategist" (previously he had been one of several "senior advisers") and presenting each of his senior colleagues with a silver bowl inscribed with the words of Horace Mann: "Be ashamed to die until you have won some victory for humanity."

Dear Mark,

Be ashamed to die.

Cross posted at FiveThirtyEight.

(Following on yesterday's organizing diary, I thought this would be a useful scoop.)

With this morning’s Jonathan Martin front-page piece on McCain’s organizing surge at Politico, it looks like continuing the discussion of ground game is just the order of the day. From the piece, it seems clear that the campaign shake-up has resulted in a far more aggressive effort at voter outreach. For Republican partisans, this can only be good news.

However, we need a bit of a reality check, since we are talking about voter contacts – numbers of phone calls and door-knocks. According to Martin’s reporting, the McCain camp made 20,000 combined door knocks and phone calls nationwide in the previous entire month. (Yes, you read that right.) With the resurgence, they are up to 324,000 in one week, an approximately 6500% increase.

This is a response diary to a pretty stupid trend of breathless armchair diaries.  I'm not naive enough to think it will stop, but I want to offer the organizer's perspective.  Campaign organizers can't talk to the press or blog (message control), so I'll let you in on the mindset.

We Are the War Room We've Been Waiting For:

And that's a large reason why the Chicken Little proclamations that we so often read and hear elsewhere - the petulant demands from armchair campaign managers that the Obama fight back in specific ways - are so silly:  Surrogates almost always make the better counterpunchers and anybody with a modem or a network of friends or neighbors is now as much of a surrogate as the big names that can garner mass media attention. When you can do something yourself, it's just plain infantile to call upon daddy or mommy - or the presidential candidate or political leader upon which you project that role - to do it for you. Hopefully, one of the lasting results of 2008 will be the emergence of the more grown-up form of political activism in which rather than calling on others to do things for us we simply do it ourselves.

Sparked by Kos' front page Tester post the other day, and while I'm in a VP mindset.

Before the comments go wild with misinterpretation, I'm not suggesting I think Obama will pick Jon Tester as VP.  That would blow my mind.

But in thinking about Obama and Tester it occurred to me the example of Tester is a good way of unpacking a feeling I have about how he'll pick his VP.  (I certainly am skeptical, as noted at fivethirtyeight today, that he'll pick a VP to try and win a specific state.)

From the Mansfield-Metcalfe dinner in Butte, MT, April 5, 2008:

And as if that weren't enough, we've got a tag team now.  (Cheering) I - I came to Montana, looking for Jon Tester's barber.  (Laughing, cheering) I was thinking about going with that style.  I was thinking about getting one of his ties.  But it only works for Jon.  Because he is an American original.  I don't know somebody who is more decent, more hardworking, more dedicated... (crowd goes totally crazy) so give it up for Jon Tester. (wild cheering continues).

It's the 3d of June, 2008.  Mattering states are voting.

On this day in history, nearly 40 years to the day of one of the country's darkest moments, Barack Obama has secured enough delegates to clinch the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States of America, this land that we love.

Barack Obama.

A skinny kid with a funny name who believed that this country had a place for him too.

As its leader.

As a leader who will talk to this country as if we were adults, who will be honest with it.  Who will be transparent.  Who will work hard to inspire participation by the formerly cynical in our society for all our mutual benefit.  Who will change the image of America for a world desperate for us to be our best selves.

For we are our brothers' keepers.  We are our sisters' keepers.

When that man, in 2004, got up and spoke those words, I saw a president.

Those words, of the deepest progressive and spiritual values, are the direct rebuttal to Reagan's "government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem."  Barack Obama will provide language for countless, less powerfully speaking Democrats to run for office in coming decades.

This is a leader who matters.

AP says so, NBC says so, everyone except the great DCW is pretty much saying so.

But is it true?

Here is the most recent pdf the DNC put out listing all superdelegates who weren't add-ons.  It was released May 15, after the Cazayoux and Childers special elections.  It has 721 names.  It still lists Al Wynn, the only discrepancy with DCW's list.  I've double and triple checked the count.  It's 721.

An update to last Friday's diary, with news of interveningly gained supers and the advisory about half-seating of FL/MI under discussion.  Also news from Chuck Todd on "2026" and "2210," see below.

This data is current through the Boyd and Betty Richie endorsements last night.  Betty was Pelosi Club, but that number is still 6 because Chris Van Hollen joined last weekend.  New Friday supers will be noted and the numbers will change accordingly.  When the numbers have changed, the names that are in the new numbers will go here:

Friday May 30 endorsements:

We've also learned Deb Kozikowski is going to announce on June 4, and so will Jimmy Carter (who reconfirmed his Pelosi Club status).

"June 3 is the end of this process. Every (Democratic) voter in the country will then have had an opportunity to vote," said Kozikowski, during a Belfast Telegraph interview. "There is no reason for a superdelegate not to weigh-in on June 4."

Warning: this is an uncharitable, venting rant.  I am angry, and to give you an idea, we are headed to Rude Punditville.  Stop right now if you don't want to read it.  Awhile back, I wrongly made a premature case for how Hillary Clinton needed to be talked about in order to give her supporters an easy transition into the fold.  I was wrong.  Some things trump.  So if you don't like harsh language or are a tenderheart, click away now.  I don't even particularly want this to be rec'd, just on the record.

What follows is a totally incomplete list of people who must speak up immediately and clearly, or it's on them too.  Silence + standing endorsement equals ratification.

In no particular order:

Paul Krugman.  Krugman, you weaselly motherfucker, you better ask for some forgiveness without the slightest goddamn snide remark.  

Tina Fey.  Tina, you exhorted voters to elect this goddamn horrorshow.  You have terrible judgment and you need to apologize for what you tried to bring about through your advocacy.

All numbers updated with 1 OR super, 2 CA supers, 2 Edwards NH pledged confirmations.

Rachel Maddow has it mostly right.  She was right on the night of May 6, the lone voice insisting the Clintons should be taken at their word that they were planning to go out ugly, and I agreed with her at the time and still do.

But she is wrong in one important respect.  She cites Obama needing approximately 90 of 210 to get over the top in a seat Michigan and Florida in full scenario.  I am now going to conclusively show why the math is much, much more favorable for Obama than that.

Because Obama's camp, ridiculously competent in all strategic choices math-related, certainly sees what I do, I believe Barack Obama is going to pre-empt the May 31 meeting with an agreement to seat both delegations in full, and I think he is going to wait another week to do it so his delegate number is maximized.

If he gets 23-36 supers (unanticipated by the calendar: add-ons) in the next week, he can just let the calendar put him over the top on its own.

It's the 20th of May, 2008.  The Great State of Oregon will officially, historically give Barack Obama the pledged delegate majority, and I know that means Oregon matters.

I dedicate this to my friend big Dave O., a field organizer who has worked his mind and body into gruel for Barack Obama starting over a year ago in NH, then SC, then Maine, then Ohio, then PA, and finally home in MT.  That guy is a god damn warrior and nothing would make me happier than seeing his dedication and excellence rewarded when that day comes.  (Also one of the biggest field heroes in Jon Tester's race, btw.)

Dave's not a softie like me, but he shared one short, simple moment from this campaign saga that caught him good.  It was South Carolina, and Dave had a couple rural upstate counties near Spartanburg.  After the polls closed, he and one of his volunteers, a 70-something y.o. black man, quietly watched the returns come in.  They stood silently together a long time.  With glistening eyes and stunned wonderment the man finally turns to Dave, this young, white, good-hearted man from rural Montana.  Looks Dave in the eyes and says simply, "I never thought I would see this."

Oregon, take us home baby.

May 20, Barack Obama will declare pledged delegate victory.  Oregon'll be a fun results tracker diary.

3 weeks ago, Jed grasped the importance of perception of whether it's voters or supers putting Obama over the top.  

One week left.  Here are my topline conclusions about what it will take (nitty gritty details spelled out below):

47 pledged delegates from KY/OR Tuesday.  99% lock.
4 add-ons this weekend.  CO(1), CA(2) a formality. KS(1) expected.
49 supers or Edwards pledged not from MI/FL.  Avg 7 per day for the next 7 days.
7 Edwards-committed pledged switchers.  Note: Count toward the 49 if from Iowa, NH or SC, otherwise they're extra.

Thu May 15 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Fri May 16 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Sat May 17 - 9 supers or E-pledged (incl. CO add-on Frederico Pena, KS add-on)
Sun May 18 - 9 supers or E-pledged (incl. 2 California add-ons)
Mon May 19 - 7 supers or E-pledged
Tue May 20 - 7 supers or E-pledged; Obama wins 47 pledged delegates
Wed May 21 - 7 supers or E-pledged

I confess, I didn't even watch one second of cable news on Tuesday.  I played poker.  I got a friend on the phone nearly 3 hours after the polls closed, and he gave me a hilarious, gorgeously profane encapsulation of the massive insipidry of Greater Pundolia.

Right as we were winding up our conversation, he mentions, reading off TV:

"Breaking: Democrat wins special election in Mississippi."

I started laughing.  All that effort in punditry.  So pointless.  All the exit poll wankery, so much drilling down, so little feel for the spirit at loose in the land.

Today is May 13, 2008, and West Virginia, a state that matters like all the rest, is going to the polls.

We already know this will be a bad day for Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count.  But I encourage those of you tempted to harbor bad feelings for a state because it doesn't support the candidate I favor and most of you favor not to do so.  See the big picture, and get a smile on your face.  

The talkers on TV don't matter.  What matters is that the incredibly effective team running Barack Obama's presidential campaign has executed a masterful plan from the beginning all the way to the nomination.  They don't get too high, they don't get too low, they don't leak.  They just like, respect and believe in their guy.

The bottom line is this.  Barack Obama is going to give an acceptance speech on Thursday, August 28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado that is going to make you god damn proud to be an American.  Non-citizens will see that while America can fail its ideals sometimes, the best of what America can produce is still pretty magnificent too.

So West Virginia, you matter.

We have crossed another landmark moment in the superdelegate race.  With the endorsement of Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR) and the flip of Rep. Donald Payne (NJ), even under Clinton counting of the Florida/Michigan delegations, Barack Obama leads in every individual category of elected superdelegate:  Governor, Senator, Representative.  

True, the race is in the post-checkmate phase, but it sure is fun officially touching the bases and I have had this diary in the queue for some time, so here it is.

Barack Obama leads in Governors 14-11 [14-12].

Barack Obama leads in Senators 18-13 [18-15].  Maria Cantwell will flip after May 20, so it's really 19-12 [19-14].

Barack Obama leads in Representatives 83-78 [86-85].

[Florida and Michigan in brackets]

This will be a relatively short diary, attempting to expand on a comment I made in dawnt's excellent diary.

There are calls for unity from Obama supporters and Clinton supporters alike.  As an Obama supporter I have a swirl of emotions about the tone and tactics of the recent campaign.  I fully get the practical need to come together.  

I also understand the resistance fellow Obama supporters feel toward immediately displacing honestly come-by antipathy about Clinton campaign tactics.  I am sure I'm not alone in feeling that many things crossed non-negotiable moral lines that mark out why we joined the Democratic Party in the first place.  Living out our best selves by embracing the better angels of our nature is easier said than done.

It's Tuesday, Sixo de Mayo, 2008.  Someone forgot to tell North Carolina it wasn't a big, mattering state in time to cancel this foolishness.  So they're having it.  Polls close at 7:30 EDT.

IMMEDIATELY CALLED FOR OBAMA AT 7:30PM EDT.

After tonight, there are 37 mini-races left, and Obama has been viable in every single one of these races so far, which means 1 delegate.  135 pledged delegates to clinch the majority.  That means the magic number tonight is 98.  98 means checkmate.

NC Board of Elections, USA Today

The popular vote is a fallacy, as I've written before.  A brief recap:  1) Candidates would camp out in large urban areas like LA and Brooklyn and never spend so many millions trying to split 200,000 votes in the whole state of NH; 2) No state would rationally hold a caucus, thereby disenfranchising its say in the nomination selection; and 3) unlike the general election concept of one person, one vote, allowing independents or Republicans to vote in some states but not others badly skews the simplistic moral argument underpinning popular vote.

Tuesday night, I am watching two numbers.  First, if Obama takes down a combined 98 pledged delegates then pledged delegate checkmate can officially be declared, with the remaining 37 proportional races guaranteed to give Obama at least a minimum 1 vote and thus put him over the top on the minimum viability alone.

Second, I want to see Obama erase Clinton's PA popular vote gain, which would finally drive a stake into that argument.

This diary is a straightforward analysis of what it will take to regain 214,224 votes.

There is a pattern of thought and commentary that goes like this:

"I like Barack Obama, and think he's a great guy and would make a great president.  Unfortunately, there are too many racists in this country to elect Barack Obama."

(or, TV translation): "Barack Obama can't win working class whites."

There is a name for this:  Vouching for the Other Guy's Bad Faith.  Vouching for the other guy's racism.